Japan will never stop to surprise me: last week, in Japanese stores, PS3 sold less than Xbox360!
I feel that more than a WII/PS3/360 console war in Japan there is a portable console vs home console war with the latter loosing every week: after the restyle the PSP started to be a good seller instead the new PS3 seems following the path of the first models.
Basically, way before the release last year, the meme "PLAYSTATION 3 is TOTALLY UNCOOL" spread among japanese otaku subconscious  and I feel Sony needs more than a new/cheaper model to overcome this negative meme... the party is not over (the new PS3 model will sure sell during first weeks), but the cake...  (Media Create's Official Japanese hardware and software sales here or on the right column of this blog)